Geopolitics
Geopolitical risk, conflict zones, sanctions, trade wars, and their market impact. Data from FRED, Yahoo Finance & World Bank.
Yield Curve
0.52%
Normal — recession signal
M2 Money Supply
$22.7T
Global liquidity driver
Dollar Index
118.8552
Trade-weighted
Active Crises
2
Ongoing geopolitical events
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ACTIVE
Iran–US/Israel Conflict
Strait of Hormuz disrupted. QatarEnergy LNG halted. Brent $100+. TTF gas +57%.
Since Feb 28, 2026
PHASING IN
EU Russian Gas Ban
Stepwise ban began March 18, 2026. Full LNG ban by end 2026, pipeline gas by autumn 2027.
Since Mar 18, 2026
ESCALATING
US–China Trade War
New tariff rounds in 2026. Semiconductor export controls tightened. Rare earth retaliation risk.
Ongoing
ONGOING
Russia–Ukraine War
No ceasefire in sight. European defense spending accelerating. Energy supply restructuring continues.
Since Feb 2022
ESCALATING
India–Pakistan Border Tensions
Renewed military posturing along the Line of Control following the Pahalgam terror attack. India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty.
Apr 2025 – present
ONGOING
Sudan Civil War
RSF and SAF continue fighting. Humanitarian crisis with 10M+ displaced. International mediation stalled.
Apr 2023 – present
ACTIVE
South China Sea Disputes
Increased Chinese coast guard activity near Philippine-claimed reefs. US freedom of navigation ops continue.
Ongoing
IN EFFECT
EU Green Deal Industrial Policy
Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) transitional phase. Affecting steel, cement, aluminum imports.
Oct 2023 – present
EXTENDING
OPEC+ Production Cuts
Saudi-led voluntary cuts of 2.2M bpd extended through Q2 2026. Balancing market amid weak Chinese demand.
Nov 2023 – present
United States
$27.29T
China
$18.27T
Germany
$4.56T
Japan
$4.21T
India
$3.64T
United Kingdom
$3.42T
France
$3.06T
Brazil
$2.19T